HOUSMAIL HM040                                                                                                                                   24 September 1999

EARTHQUAKE STATISTICS

 

This information was current on Tuesday 14 September 1999

From - National Earthquake Information Centre

http://gldss7.cr.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/7up.html (As at September 1999)

QUOTE:

NUMBER OF EARTHQUAKES PER YEAR MAGNITUDE 7.0 OR GREATER 1900 - 1998

1900   

13     

1925   

17     

1950   

39     

1975   

21

1901   

14     

1926   

19     

1951   

21     

1976$  

25

1902    

8     

1927   

20     

1952   

17     

1977   

16

1903   

10     

1928   

22     

1953   

22     

1978   

18

1904   

16     

1929   

19     

1954   

17     

1979   

15

1905   

26     

1930   

13     

1955   

19     

1980   

18

1906   

32     

1931   

26     

1956   

15     

1981   

14

1907   

27     

1932   

13     

1957   

34     

1982   

10

1908   

18     

1933   

14     

1958   

10     

1983   

15

1909   

32     

1934   

22     

1959   

15     

1984    

8

1910   

36     

1935   

24     

1960   

22     

1985   

15

1911   

24     

1936   

21     

1961   

18     

1986#   

6

1912   

22     

1937   

22     

1962   

15     

1987   

11

1913   

23     

1938   

26     

1963   

20     

1988    

8

1914   

22     

1939   

21     

1964   

15     

1989    

7

1915   

18     

1940   

23     

1965   

22     

1990   

13

1916   

25     

1941   

24     

1966   

19     

1991   

10

1917   

21     

1942   

27     

1967   

16     

1992N  

23

1918   

21     

1943*  

41     

1968   

30     

1993M  

16

1919   

14     

1944   

31     

1969   

27

1994   

15

1920    

8     

1945   

27     

1970   

29

1995E  

25

1921   

11     

1946   

35     

1971   

23

1996   

22

1922   

14     

1947   

26     

1972   

20

1997   

20

1923   

23     

1948   

28     

1973   

16

1998   

16

1924   

18     

1949   

36     

1974   

21

 

 

 

Average events per year approx. = 16.76

        * - Most active year since 1900

        # - Least active year since 1900

        $ - Year with most people killed since 1900 (295,000 - 699,000; dominated by the Tangshan quake with casualty estimate from 255,000 - 655,000)

        N - First full year of operation on NSN/digital recording system

        M - Year moment magnitude quotes were introduced

        E - Year energy magnitude quotes were introduced

        Statistics were compiled from the Earthquake Data Base System of the 

        U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center, Golden CO

END QUOTE

 

For interest, I added up the totals by decade. This is in the next table.

TOTALS MAGNITUDE 7.0 OR GREATER FOR DECADES:

1900-1909

196 

1910-1919

226 

1920-1929

171 

1930-1939

202 

1940-1949

298 

1950-1959

209 

1960-1969

204 

1970-1979

204 

1980-1989

112 

1990-1998

171

(9 years only)

 

On the face of it, these figures do NOT provide a reliable basis for saying that there has been any remarkable increase in large earthquakes in recent years!

The National Earthquake Information Centre does say that there has been an increase in the number of earthquakes REPORTED each year. (Including other smaller quakes below 7.0) However that is not nearly the same thing as an actual increase in earthquake numbers! They attribute this to the improvement in global communications, and the large increase in the number of seismograph stations now available for detection. This means that a lot of quakes which would not have been detected or reported in past times, are now making the headlines. See their Web Page at:

http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/general/handouts/increase_in_earthquakes.html

It has become common for Christians everywhere, to quote as "FACT" that major Earthquakes have remarkably increased in frequency over recent years, and that this is "proof" of the nearness of the return of Jesus from Heaven.

BUT THE FIGURES QUOTED ABOVE DO NOT REALLY JUSTIFY THAT CLAIM!

For all of us, perhaps the most important point to be taken from all this, is that in the interest of TRUTH we need to be more careful with handling the STATISTICS!

Of course, it is ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN that Jesus is coming. But we don't need to quote unreliable information to prove that! You can't build TRUTH on a foundation which is NOT TRUE! That is the Devil's domain!

To avoid bringing discredit on the Gospel, we need to pay more attention to checking out the accuracy of our information, instead of simply passing it on "second hand", as "proof" that Christ is coming back maybe next week!

In any case, there is a big question about whether Jesus actually meant to say that EARTHQUAKES would be one of the major signs of his coming! More about that another time.

Allon